GDC Predictions Analyzed (page 2 of 3)
- February 26, 2007 19:31 PM PST
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The 50/50s...
The 50/50s
PREDICTION: Nintendo will announce spring 2008 release dates for Super Smash Bros. Brawl and Super Mario Galaxy.
Likelihood: 50%
Submitted by: Bro Buzz
Why it WILL happen: Much like Microsoft's reliance on Halo, Nintendo's bread and butter are unquestionably its first-party marquee titles. Super Mario Galaxy still looks to be early in development, and to avoid another Mario Sunshine debacle, Nintendo is likely to target an early 2008 release in order to maximize the game's polish. Ditto for Smash Bros. Brawl, which has rapidly turned into one of Nintendo's top-selling franchises.
Why it WON'T: Nintendo may instead opt to focus on a late 2007 release date for these key games in order to bolster the Wii's somewhat arid 2007 release calendar. The Xbox 360 and, presumably, the PS3 will be in full gear by holiday of 2007, meaning that Nintendo must come up with high-profile titles this year in order to keep their hard-earned buzz.
PREDICTION: Sony will emerge with a wave of support from the press based on its products and media outreach.
Likelihood: 50%
Submitted by: Lunchbox
Why it WILL happen: The PlayStation 3 is still selling steadily despite its high price, and Blu-ray is showing signs of life as an HD film format. With new-generation consoles powering the video game boom, it's reasonable to expect that more publishers will come around to Sony's way of thinking. After all, the company plans for the PS3 to last a full 10 years, a move that would bring much-needed stability to game publishers and the industry as a whole.
Why it WON'T: Sony's a tough nut to crack. The company alienated some developers with its powerful-but-demanding Cell processor, which forced some programmers back into the classroom in order to master its multi-core nuances. More importantly, Sony has filled the game industry's "big brother" role for years, a role previously held by Nintendo. In some ways, this makes the PS3 an industry target. And with the Wii and Xbox 360 selling strongly, it's possible the PS3 will find itself the odd man (or console) out this time around.
PREDICTION: Sony will unveil more about Killzone 2.
Likelihood: 45%
Submitted by: Ahoy_and_Avast
Why it WILL happen: Sony has made virtually no information available on this hotly anticipated PS3 marquee shooter, outside of a short pre-rendered video sequence and a few terse words from the Netherlands-based development team. With few big Xbox 360 titles looming on the horizon, Sony may choose GDC as a prime moment to finally push Killzone 2 into the light of day.
Why it WON'T: On the other hand, Killzone 2 may be further off than we suspect. Sony has remained frustratingly tight-lipped about the game, an odd stance to take if Killzone 2 is in fact in a good enough state to show off. We do know that the game is considered a key early title for the PS3, serving as Sony's answer to the Halo phenomenon. It's possible that Sony will push further press coverage until later in 2007 as the development team learns to harness the complex Cell processor, which could help give Killzone 2 a technological leg up over its competition.
PREDICTION: David Jaffe will get hammered and reveal more God of War III secrets.
Likelihood: 40%
Submitted by: Ahoy_and_Avast
Why it WILL happen: Okay, we're kidding. Or not. Actually, Jaffe's, um, relaxed appearance at the Playboy Mansion last year raised more than a few eyebrows. And yes, he did mention God of War 3 on the PlayStation 3. So there is a precedent.
Why it WON'T: Jaffe doesn't seem to be in a hurry to perform an encore of an interview that he thought "would kill my career, as I did it while sh**-faced." Jaffe likes a good time, but sometimes discretion is the better part of valor.
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