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Domestic | Feature

Feature: GDC Predictions Analyzed

Feature by Sid Shuman | 02/26/2007 | 19:37:22 PM PST

The Game Developers Conference is mere days away from its March 5th opening. To celebrate, here's a collection of the most popular gaming predictions, and why they will -- or won't -- come true.

Table of Contents

The Safe Bets

The 50/50s
The Long Shots

The Safe Bets

PREDICTION: Microsoft will unveil the rumored black Xbox 360 with HDMI and a 120 GB hard drive.

Likelihood: 90%
Submitted by: Tenacious Moses

Why it WILL happen: This one's pretty much a no-brainer, if you add up the supposedly leaked shots from a few months back, recent retailer rumors, and Microsoft's past hints at future HDMI support. The clues all point to a new, upgraded Xbox 360 SKU, possibly including the new 65 nanometer CPU die sizes for reduced heat and increased profitability on Microsoft's part.

Still, until GDC comes and goes, this one remains in the unconfirmed category. But we think it's the safest bet of the show.

PREDICTION: Microsoft will unveil more details about the Halo 3 multiplayer beta.

Likelihood: 75%
Submitted by: Tenacious Moses

Why it WILL happen: GDC is held in early March, which is rapidly approaching the spring time frame Bungie slated at for the Halo 3 multiplayer beta. Even if the beta ends up slipping until early summer, it's reasonable to assume the company will announce more details about this eagerly anticipated event, especially with Crackdown just entering stores and capturing attention for its included Halo 3 beta invitation.

Will the announcement include a firm release date and specifics regarding the beta? It's impossible to say for sure, but it's likely. A far-out theory suggests that Bungie will have the multiplayer beta set up in kiosks at GDC, giving attendees the first public opportunity to play Halo 3's multiplayer mode. Considering Bungie's famously open policy towards its projects, this is unlikely but not impossible.

PREDICTION: Internet commentators will love Shigeru Miyamoto's keynote and hate Phil Harrison's.

Likelihood: 80%
Submitted by: Dave May Cry

Why it WILL happen: It's practically a given. The PS3's high price point, coupled with Sony's past displays of arrogance, have made the company an irresistible whipping boy for vitriolic blogs. In contrast, Nintendo's new underdog status and fan-favorite Wii have made them the critical darlings of the moment. In keeping, blog reactions will almost exclusively pan Harrison's keynote, regardless of what he actually says, while trumpeting that of the charismatic Miyamoto.

PREDICTION: Microsoft will announce a final release date for Halo 3.

Likelihood: 75%
Submitted by: Major Mike

Why it WILL happen: Bungie has already targeted fall of 2007, but it's likely that Microsoft will attempt to grab headlines at GDC by narrowing this timeframe down to a specific month. Riding high on the success of Crackdown (due in part to the bundled Halo 3 beta invitation), Microsoft has little to lose and much to gain. In fact, Microsoft Game Studios' Xbox 360 plans for 2007 revolve almost entirely around Halo 3. As the first Halo game to land on the Xbox 360, expectations are high all around. Skipping Halo 3 talk at GDC would be a waste of an opportunity to get the game back into gamers' minds as they debate whether to buy an Xbox 360 or a PS3.

PREDICTION: Activision will reveal details about the Wii Guitar Hero.

Likelihood: 75%
Submitted by: Vicious Sid

Why it WILL happen: Activision is looking at newly acquired Guitar Hero developer Red Octane to boost profits and buzz. And with a Wii version of the hit Guitar Hero series well into production, GDC would seem to be an ideal time to let the proverbial cat out of the bag with first images or a private demonstration.

Considering Guitar Hero's decidedly humble technological roots, a port to Wii shouldn't represent a big technological challenge. Red Octane has also proven to work quickly on such console ports: the Xbox 360 version of Guitar Hero II was a rapid turnaround for the developer. In all likelihood, it's a fairly safe bet that new Wii details will be revealed at GDC.